Challenge: How to make better predictions?

I love your thought experiments on what the new year will bring. Especially the fun and inspiring predictions. Making predictions is tough, however. And I fear in the last couple of years your predictions became more corporate and flat.

The goal: Your predictions should be more bold, fun, creative and with impact on society.

How to get there?

  • invite a guest (Is Bryan Lunduke available?)
  • change the scoring:
    • Let the community vote (set a deadline for that) on all predictions. Which one is the most fun / outrageous / boring / community favorite? Each prediction that wins the vote will get an extra point. Except the most boring prediction.
    • The most boring prediction can only score 1 point or zero points. No partial points for that one.
    • If you want to predict something NOT to happen, the prediction must be controversial.
  • use creativity techniques
  • More fun prediction: Could the same topic be used as an April fool’s joke? [Example: In 2024 there will be a spin-off podcast called “Worse Current”.]

I know this list is lacking. Community, please add more points!

In any case I am looking forward to the next show. My prediction: Nobody will react to this post. :wink:

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I think the big one to fix is bonus points.

Bonus predictions need to be worth up to a point in total, each one is boolean (no fractions), so if you make 10 bonus predictions and so if you get 5 of them right you get half a point total. Gives you the option to decide if you want 2 bonus predictions, get 0 right and get 0 extra points, or do 5, get 3 right get 0.6 extra points.

When the margins on the main predictions are usually within a point of each other, having it come down to who made the most correct predictions from the bonuses makes it more interesting, rather than having 5 bonus predictions and running away with a 3 point lead.

Also gives the ability to retroactively include this if the episode is already recorded.

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Do we know when we’ll be getting the predictions episode? Is everything okay?